The weather this week will once again see the dry weather continuing over Bjorli with relatively light winds as High Pressure remains in charge. Frost is expected to be severe and widespread through the entire week and it will gradually become colder with temperatures likely to fall to -20°c or lower.
Last week, I hinted that a change in the pattern may finally be in sight by mid-November and I still think that a change is on the cards - albeit a little later than initially expected.
Uncertain Outlook
As we head into Friday or Saturday, temperatures will begin to recover somewhat as an area of Low Pressure over Britain begins to move closer to Scandinavia. Outbreaks of light and patchy snow over the weekend, along with a strengthening SE'ly wind, may later give way to heavier snow as the wind eventually swings to the NW. However, this is far from certain at this stage with the ECM model favouring this outcome more so than the GFS. Most snowfall will again be to the south and east of Bjorli over next weekend with the main focus on snow falling over Bjorli not being until the start of next week - if the ECM model proves to be correct. Temperatures will rise over the weekend as pressure falls across Southern Norway and begins to rise over the UK. Today's GFS 12z operational run is then wanting to bring milder SW winds across Scandinavia and the GEFS ensembles nicely reflect this uncertainty with many possible outcomes on the table.
Even if a SW'ly airflow does develop into next week (in connection to High Pressure over the UK), today's GFS 12z operational run also shows that Low Pressure will readily move into Northern Norway by day 10 (T+240). The rest of the run then goes on to show a more mobile flow with unsettled weather then establishing itself over Norway and thereby increasing the risk of heavier snowfalls over Bjorli.
The extended outlook is therefore an uncertain one but confidence is now growing on a change in the pattern which has led to the prolonged and very dry weather over Bjorli in the last month. This coming week will indeed remain dry and it will become colder but next weekend will see the beginning of a change and one which can't come quick enough for those looking for some snow...
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