The autumn holidays are now underway across Norway and the weather will be split between the north and the south with the former having wintry conditions while the south sees a gradual change to cooler temperatures. Bjorli will see outbreaks of light rain or showers in the days ahead and the trend towards cooler temperatures could mean we see some sleet or snow by the end of next week or into next weekend.
Is this the start of the snowy season?
Autumn is known for large variations in temperature across the mountains of Norway and this year is going to be no different. Bjorli typically sees its first snowfalls during October but October snowfall will rarely persist beyond a few days because we also see periods of rain and sleet as well as snow. This is very normal in the season of change because we often still see some very warm or hot air masses further south in Europe and with colder air increasingly taking hold further north and across the arctic, the scene is set for battles between the two and mid Norway is typically in the firing line. This often results in very changeable weather with some large variations in temperature. It also means it can be very difficult for weather forecasters to be confident on the prognosis beyond 3 or 4 days ahead.
Both GFS and ECM have a similar broad pattern going into next weekend and you can clearly see the boundary between the warm air and the cold air which lies close to mid Norway. The GEFS ensembles show a massive spread in possibilities from next weekend but there is a high level of agreement on things turning cooler through this coming week - especially from mid-week onwards.
My prediction is that Bjorli may see a little wet snow before the end of next weekend but with rain and sleet also on the cards, it isn't time to get the skis out just yet! With that said, it may be time to start thinking about getting your winter tyres ready and certainly so if you are planning any autumn trip across the highest mountains or venturing further north.
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