As the last week of September approaches, many locals start to think about the winter. Temperatures have been above normal throughout this month and rainfall has also been over normal.
A brief respite was on the morning of Monday 18th September where it started with a frost and a temperature around freezing point. With that aside, the pattern through September has so far followed August with the emphasis very much being on wet and mild conditions.
Will there be a change by the end of the month?
Short answer: No.
Low pressure systems will continue to dominate between Iceland and Scotland. This will keep the wind blowing from a southerly quadrant and will therefore keep temperatures above normal and with rain never too far away. The next 7-9 days look like being unsettled with outbreaks of rain and at times, quite breezy too. If you are wanting a drier spell of weather, it looks as though you have to wait a bit longer because the ensembles show a high level of confidence in the wet and mild theme continuing for the foreseeable future.
The above GFS ensemble shows both temperature and rainfall being above average for Oslo. The 850 hPA temperature plot is quite tightly clustered and this means that confidence is fairly high in remaining mild or very mild... which isn't that unusual when we have a zonal set up with the Icelandic Low. The wait for cooler and drier autumnal weather will therfore continue...
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